Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
